Brent Crude (July contract): $114.44 per barrel, up 5.8% on the day WTI Crude (June contract): $106.42 per barrel, up 4.39% on the day

 

 

 

Fierce clashes broke out in the Strait of Hormuz: U.S. forces sank 7 Iranian speedboats, nearly paralyzing shipping in the strait. (30% of global seaborne crude oil passes through this waterway.)

 

Fujairah Port in the UAE came under attack: Iranian drones and missiles targeted oil facilities, leaving 3 people injured. This marks the first-ever attack on oil infrastructure in a Gulf country.

 

Chevron issued a warning: It will take several months for oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal, and tight supply will persist.

 

 

Seven major oil-producing countries agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day in June. It is the third consecutive month of paper-only production hikes, with limited actual market supply growth.

 

Background: The UAE officially withdrew from OPEC on May 1, no longer bound by production quotas. It plans to boost its daily production capacity to 5 million barrels by 2027.

 

Spare capacity: Global crude oil spare capacity has fallen below the warning line to a historic low, leaving little flexibility to adjust supply.

 

 

The IEA cut its 2026 oil demand forecast: Revised from a growth of 640,000 barrels per day to a decline of 80,000 barrels per day. It may see the first negative growth since 2020, as high oil prices curb consumption.

 

Low inventory levels: Global crude and refined oil inventories keep declining. Coupled with a supply shortfall of about 4.8 million barrels per day, oil prices are supported at high levels.

 

 

Price range: Brent crude is expected to fluctuate sharply between $98–$120 per barrel in May, dominated by geopolitical risk premiums. Key variables: The recovery pace of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the actual implementation of OPEC+ production policies.