Recently, international spot gold has witnessed drastic volatile movements. After a round of sharp pullback, it staged a notable rebound from the evening of August 4 to the Asia‑Pacific session on August 5. Spot gold once approached the key psychological mark of $4100 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures advanced in sync. Intense bull‑bear games are unfolding across the market. Gold prices are jointly affected by Federal Reserve policy expectations, shifts in Middle‑East geopolitical situations, global central‑bank gold purchases, US Treasury yield and US dollar fluctuations as well as capital flow conditions. During the Asian mid‑morning trading hours on August 5, London spot gold fluctuated within the range of $4070‑4090 per ounce. The main COMEX gold futures contract traded above $4130. The $4050 level has formed vital short‑term support. Heavy selling pressure exists in the $4120‑4150 upside range. Only a decisive breakout above this zone can unlock further upward room. If gold falls back below $4050 again, the market will return to weak consolidation.

The direct catalyst behind this round of rebound stems from major easing signals emerging in the Middle‑East geopolitical landscape. Market sources reported that the United States and Iran are pushing forward negotiations aiming to reopen shipping passages in the Strait of Hormuz. Risks of geopolitical conflict escalation faded rapidly, triggering a sharp slump in international crude oil, with Brent crude plunging more than 6% overnight. The sharp drop in oil prices cooled global energy‑fueled inflation expectations. Markets subsequently scaled back the probability of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. The odds of a September rate hike dropped from the previous 68% to 59%. Gold generates no interest income, so lower rate‑hike expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Real US Treasury yields moved downward, delivering obvious valuation‑repair momentum for bullion. Nevertheless, markets keep reminding investors that the US‑Iran negotiations have not been formally finalized. There remains risk of negotiation collapse and renewed conflict escalation. Geopolitical factors may reverse at any time and further magnify price volatility.

Over at the Federal Reserve, the FOMC policy meeting held in late July kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%‑3.75%, marking the fifth rate hold so far this year. Clear divisions appeared within the committee. Nine voting members favored steady rates, while three voting members publicly called for a 25‑basis‑point rate hike, representing the highest number of dissenting votes since 2016. Several hawkish officials have delivered public speeches after the meeting, stating inflation is cooling slower than anticipated and additional rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Fed Chair Walsh maintained a neutral‑to‑hawkish stance. He repeatedly emphasized unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target, and noted rising market yields have already achieved partial policy tightening, so immediate policy adjustments are unnecessary. Such remarks triggered divergent market interpretations. Some investors viewed the message as dovish, while others still worry high interest rates will stay in place for an extended period. The US dollar index experienced fierce swings and retreated near 99.8. A weaker dollar is supportive for dollar‑denominated gold. However, once US inflation data rebounds, the US dollar and Treasury yields will bounce back swiftly, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

Global central‑bank gold purchases remain the core long‑term supporting factor for gold. The Bank of Korea officially announced on August 3 the resumption of gold buying for the first time in 13 years. The move is intended to lift gold’s proportion in foreign‑exchange reserves and realize foreign‑reserve diversification. It plans to adopt diversified procurement channels, sourcing from domestic gold producers as well as allocating gold‑related financial products. Prior to this, multiple emerging‑market central banks kept increasing their gold holdings continuously, lifting gold’s weighting among global official foreign‑exchange reserves. These long‑term allocation‑oriented buying flows will not be affected by short‑term price swings and can offer solid downside support amid sharp gold corrections. By contrast, speculative capital remains directionless. CFTC positioning data shows fund long positions have been reduced to neutral levels. No large‑scale one‑sided market bets have been observed, indicating huge institutional divergence over future price directions.

China’s domestic gold market moved in tandem with overseas markets. SGE AU9999 spot gold hovered between 883‑892 yuan per gram, and Gold T+D also rebounded. Domestic gold ETFs sustained capital inflows; one major gold ETF recorded total net inflows exceeding 4.5 billion yuan across ten trading days. A‑share gold mining stocks performed strongly, with some hitting daily limit‑up, while stocks such as Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold posted sizable gains. Hong Kong‑listed gold‑related equities also strengthened. In the physical retail market, retail prices for full‑gold jewellery stayed roughly between 1222‑1231 yuan per gram, obviously lower compared with year‑to‑date highs. Gold recycling reference prices stood at 868‑874 yuan per gram, and retail prices for investment bars ranged from 892‑906 yuan per gram. Large processing premiums still separate raw‑material gold and finished jewellery products. On the retail side, consumers seize dips to purchase gold, meanwhile some investors cash out old gold amid price rebounds, bringing active two‑way trading activity.

Major investment banks hold widely‑split views. Deutsche Bank stays bullish over the long run, arguing the major gold bull cycle is far from over and forecasting year‑end gold prices could reach $4700 per ounce, supported by global reserve diversification and persistent geopolitical risks. Other institutions remain cautious. They argue US economic resilience persists and inflation re‑acceleration risks have not faded. If upcoming US CPI and employment data beat expectations, Federal Reserve rate‑hike expectations will resurface and gold will face renewed correction pressure. Most brokerage reports characterize August trading as high‑level wide‑range oscillation rather than a solid one‑sided trend. Price moves will be heavily driven by data releases and news headlines.

Key events and data worth monitoring: track developments of US‑Iran negotiations, as Strait of Hormuz situations will simultaneously impact crude oil, inflation expectations and gold prices; keep an eye on US inflation and employment figures, which will reshape Fed rate‑hike expectations; follow public speeches from Fed officials and watch shifts between hawkish and dovish tones. From a technical perspective, $4050 serves as a critical bull‑bear watershed for spot gold. Primary resistance sits at $4120, and strong resistance lies near $4180. Sudden news shocks may trigger sharp breakouts or breakdowns of key price levels, sparking algorithm‑driven sharp surges or slumps.

Risk warning: Gold prices are subject to heavy volatility caused by geopolitics, US dollar movements and interest‑rate shifts. The above content is purely market‑news collation, not any form of investment or trading advice.